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Oliver's Insights - Five things you need to know about the Australian economy

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

 

The attached note looks at the outlook for the Australian economy. The key points are as follows:

  • The Australian economy grew solidly over the last year.
  • While recession remains very unlikely, the combination of a slowing housing cycle, constraints on consumer spending and still subdued business investment will likely see growth slow going forward to around 2.5-3%.
  • As a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.
  • We don't expect the RBA to start raising rates until late 2020 at the earliest and the risk remains significant that the next move could be a cut.

 

 

 




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