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Oliver's Insights - Will Australian house prices crash? Five reasons why it’s more complicated than you think!

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The following note looks at the outlook for Australian house prices and specifically the much talked about risk of a property crash.

The key points are as follows:

  • Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest.
  • We continue to expect a 5-10% downswing in Sydney and Melbourne property prices but a crash is unlikely and other capital cities will perform better.
  • It remains a time for property investors to exercise caution and focus on laggard or higher-yielding cities or regions.


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