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Trump Trade Wars and Share Market Volatility


Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist comments on


The latest bout of share market weakness. The key points are as follows:


  • Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market.
  • The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. So the pullback in shares since January remains more likely to be corrective rather than the start of a major bear market.
  • The key for investors is to turn down the noise during times like the present and stick to a long-term strategy.


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