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Oliver's Insights - Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.


The attached note takes a look at the renewed weakness in share markets seen in recent weeks which has taken them back to around their late October lows. The key points are as follows:

  • The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely.
  • Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market is unlikely.

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