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Oliver's Insights - The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

 

With the Australian Federal election now called for May 18, the attached note takes a look at the impact of Federal elections on investment markets and the critical policy differences this time around of relevance to investors. The key points are as follows:

 

  • Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it's out of the way.
  • With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more intervention in the economy the May election presents a starker choice than has been the case since the 1970s & so suggests greater uncertainty for investors than usual.
  • Labor's higher tax and regulation agenda may be a negative for Australian assets, but this could be partly offset in the short term by more targeted fiscal stimulus.
  • To return to decent wage gains requires a productivity enhancing reform agenda and much lower unemployment. This election is unlikely to deliver much on the former.

 

Oliver's Insights - The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors Oliver's Insights - The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors (283 KB)




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